The National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) recently published the adjusted NICS figure for April, a statistic that indicates market trends in the firearm industry. In April 2025, the NSSF-adjusted NICS figure was 1,174,294, marking a 3.4% decrease from the figure of 1,216,116 in April 2024. This steady decline from 2024 reflects a continuing trend as the market stabilizes under a new president. The unadjusted FBI NICS figure for April 2025 was 2,194,006, representing a 2.1% decline from 2,240,434 in April 2024. The reason for the adjusted number in NICS data accounts for various permit checks, as these background checks do not directly correlate to firearm sales.
The top five states for adjusted NICS checks are Texas, Florida, California, Pennsylvania, and Colorado. Similarly, these states also lead in FBI NICS handgun and long gun checks, which is not surprising, given that they are among the most populous states in the country. However, this isn’t entirely accurate, as twenty-four states have alternative permits allowing firearm purchases without additional background checks. For example, in Ohio, an updated CCW license is accepted as a substitute for running a NICS check.
Secondly, the NICS check only recognizes that a firearm is being purchased, not the number of guns. It does not represent a 1:1 ratio of firearms bought to background checks completed. Furthermore, this figure does not account for private party transfers, which are legal in many states.
So, what does this information mean? It primarily serves as a market indicator, reflecting the current trend in firearm purchases. While not a direct number, it provides the industry with insights into market stagnation or growth. For example, in April of 2019 (as a pre-COVID reference), 2,334,249 non-adjusted NICS checks were completed, which places the 2025 numbers slightly below what the industry experienced during the previous Trump administration and before the turmoil of 2020. Of course, many economic and political factors influence these numbers, and it will be something to monitor throughout 2025 and beyond.
Cory Ross is currently a writer for OutdoorHub who has chosen not to write a short bio at this time.
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