Last month, we discussed April’s National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) adjusted NICS figure. Recently, they released May’s numbers. But before we discuss those, here are a couple of reminders about what the numbers represent. First, the NICS check only recognizes that a background check is being completed, not the number of guns listed on a 4473. It does not represent a 1:1 ratio of firearms bought to background checks completed.
Furthermore, this figure does not account for private party transfers, which are legal in many states. Finally, twenty-four states have alternative permits allowing firearm purchases without additional background checks. For example, an updated CCW license is accepted as a substitute for running a NICS check in Ohio. Bear these in mind when looking at the numbers.
According to the FBI NICS report, May’s background checks barely exceeded 2 million, totaling 2,079,232. The NSSF-adjusted figure is even bleaker, at 1,071,685. The raw number includes various items, such as gun permit checks and rechecks, which is why the NSSF-adjusted number was created to reflect actual over-the-counter sales better. These numbers represent an ongoing trend—decreased volume. Compared to May 2024, this month’s numbers reflect a 1.6% drop.
While this seems bleak, it is essential to note that since July 2019, checks have exceeded 1 million/month. Something that has never occurred before. In an email to Guns.com, NSSF reported, “Firearm purchases are not an insignificant matter, and these background checks, while not a one-for-one comparison to a firearm sale, demonstrate the priority Americans place on their ability to exercise their Second Amendment rights.”
Once again, all these data points indicate market trends and confirm something we already know—the industry is in a slump. At least, a slump compared to the COVID-19 years. Compared to adjusted numbers from April 2025, there were around 100,000 fewer NICS checks. As we move into summer, the traditionally slow months of the year, it will be interesting to see if the 1 million/month metric holds. I expect companies and retailers to increase sales and rebates in an effort to push inventory. Perhaps we will find ourselves in a buyer’s market, but tariffs and economic uncertainties may force people to keep their wallets in their pockets. Stay tuned for June’s numbers.
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https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/cjis/nics_firearm_checks_-_day_month_year.pdf/view
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