Hopefully, the food coma from Thanksgiving has passed because we have NICS background check numbers to discuss and interpret as we close out 2025. This year saw record numbers for Black Friday; however, does that translate to firearms? Let’s find out. But first, a quick recap.
July was the slowest month since 2019, with NSSF-adjusted NICS totals dropping below 1 million. Although August saw the number rise back above the 1 million mark, it still represented a decline of nearly 10% from August 2024. September, on the other hand, experienced a 2% increase compared to the previous year, while October again remained above the 1 million threshold.
Reminders
First, the NICS check only confirms that a background check is taking place, not the number of guns listed on a 4473. It does not reflect a 1:1 ratio of firearms purchased to background checks completed.
Moreover, this figure does not include private party transfers, which are legal in many states. Additionally, twenty-four states have alternative permits that allow firearm purchases without requiring additional background checks. For instance, an updated CCW license is accepted as a replacement for a NICS check in Ohio. Keep these points in mind when examining the numbers.
Bad News Bears
The newly released NSSF-adjusted NICS data shows a notable decrease in background check activity for November 2025. The adjusted figure of 1,408,230 checks represents a 7% decline from November 2024, when 1,514,773 checks were processed. Unadjusted FBI totals also dropped significantly, falling to 2,005,667 checks — a 20.1 percent decrease from the 2,509,368 recorded during the same month last year. However, a positive sign is that November marks the third consecutive month with over 1 million checks. It also shows an increase compared to the previous month’s 1,299,312 checks.
What it Could Mean
The November decline relative to 2024 may reflect seasonal patterns, shifting consumer sentiment, or regulatory changes that influence firearm purchases in certain states. In other words, people don’t have as much money, and with the impending $0 NFA fee and other ongoing cases, people are waiting. With December typically one of the strongest months for background check activity, the upcoming data will help determine whether November’s drop signals a short-term fluctuation or the beginning of a broader trend as the market heads into 2026.
Mark Oliva, NSSF Managing Director of Public Affairs, had this to say:
“November’s adjusted NICS background check figures are following the trends we’ve seen all year long. While background checks for firearm sales at retail are below last year’s figures, November’s figures show a strong and enduring interest in lawful firearm ownership.”
Zooming Out
The political climate we are in is striking. While we aren’t in as severe a slump as felt during the first Trump administration, it is interesting to see this year’s numbers positioned against a previous election cycle. If anything, it suggests that consumers are no longer as comfortable as they once were. As I’ve been championing all year, we are in a buyer’s market; take advantage of the deals while you can.
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