September has passed, bringing another month of NSSF-adjusted NICS data. As days get shorter and autumn begins, firearm sales typically increase as temperatures drop. July was the slowest month since 2019, with NSSF-adjusted NICS totals dropping below 1 million. Although August saw the number rise back above the 1 million mark, it still represented a decline of almost 10% from the Same Month in 2024. Will September be more of the same? Let’s take a closer look.
This has been an ongoing news series examining the monthly NICS numbers to gauge the industry’s temperature. So far, I’ve discussed every month since April, with each edition showing a steady decline compared to the same month in the previous year. All of which came to a head in July, but will the rest of the year rebound?
Reminders
First, the NICS check only confirms that a background check is taking place, not the number of guns listed on a 4473. It does not reflect a 1:1 ratio of firearms purchased to background checks completed.
Moreover, this figure does not include private party transfers, which are legal in many states. Additionally, twenty-four states have alternative permits that allow firearm purchases without requiring additional background checks. For instance, an updated CCW license is accepted as a replacement for a NICS check in the state of Ohio. Keep these points in mind when examining the numbers.
How does the Number Bode?
In September 2025, the NICS check count for firearms remained above 1 million at 1,179,424. Unlike August, that number shows a 2% increase compared to 2024. Additionally, the unadjusted figure for September 2025 is 1,858,763, which is a 10% decrease from September 2024. Why the difference? My guess is that this is related to the increasing number of states that have passed permitless or constitutional carry laws. According to NSSF, “The adjusted NICS data were derived by subtracting out NICS purpose code permit checks and permit rechecks used by states for CCW permit application checks as well as checks on active CCW permit databases.” This makes sense if fewer people are actively applying or renewing a CCW license.
Mark Olivia, managing director of public affairs for NSSF, stated:
“September’s adjusted NICS figure of over 1.1 million background checks for the sale of a firearm is encouraging and reflects a steady interest by law-abiding Americans to exercise their Second Amendment rights. September is also the beginning of many hunting seasons across the nation, and the firearm industry typically sees background checks for retail firearm sales increase during these months, as hunters go afield and want to take with them the latest in firearms to harvest clean protein for their tables. It is a matter of pride to those in our industry that Americans from all walks of life trust their safety and their treasured pastimes to the products our industry provides.”
Zooming Out
As we begin the holiday season, manufacturers and retailers will aim to be aggressive with their sales and marketing, each trying to clear out inventory before the new year’s audits begin. We are in a buyer’s market; take advantage of the deals while you can.
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